My dear child:
Christmas is seven weeks away, and I'd bet it still manages to surprise you.
A couple of researchers, Sussman and Alter (both much smarter than Grandpa), asked people to guess what they'd spend on ordinary things, like a weekly dinner out, and on the unusual ones, like a celebration dinner, a deck repair or a new phone. They were close on the ordinary stuff. On the unusual stuff they spent almost DOUBLE what they guessed.
It comes down to how we file those costs. Each one feels like a one-off, so nobody plans for it. But the vet bill, the new tires, the birthday, the flight home... they show up every single year, right on schedule (the dentist has never once missed his appointment with my wallet). And when the researchers showed people all those one-offs together, they got a lot more careful with them.
My point is this: if surprises happen every year, they belong in the budget.
The fix is old and dull. It's called a sinking fund. Tonight, pull up last year's statements and write down every "one-off": gifts, repairs, travel, all of it. Add it up, divide by twelve, and make sure it’s accounted for in your budget (please God, tell me you keep a budget). Keep it apart from your emergency fund. That money is for the furnace.
Surprise surprise, Christmas falls on December 25th again this year. Plan like you knew it was coming.
One thing I'd tell my younger self: The surprises were on the calendar the whole time.
From the bookshelf: "Your Money or Your Life" by Vicki Robin and Joe Dominguez. Track every dollar for a while and the "one-offs" stop hiding.
A tool on my bench: The one-offs are easier to plan for when you can see them coming. PocketSmith puts your accounts on one page and forecasts your cash flow, so December shows up before it arrives. (Affiliate link. The letter earns a small commission if you buy a paid plan.)
Yours sincerely,
